Fantasy Football Week 10 – Survivor Pool

have a survivor you guys left in your in
your survivor pool I’m dead a dad and I take the dog that
Lee a weeks ago the Dolphins in and it was
you know is there a cairo Design Green Bay angry may roll the Berkeley one but was it was right to freedom you know the
philosophy that I have an interview subscribe to the same plus we think you said may we talk about it is that
what you can look on you can go and look on the office for Papa’s a comical look
at your pics and search pics and you got all pics not x1 in the
search udall pics scroll down to service our
church right instead of just your league go to search all poetry you can get like a polling data unlike
what people are doing so sixty a prisoner on the Titans this week
you cannot take the time to read it that way before you got here so we’re talking about I can take the
Titans but in-house know everyone is six there eighteen teams last 16 of them
have a day in the times of course the 16 teams are gonna take the back so let’s just do a little thought
experience do that that will make sense even just talking numbers on the air but this
makes up putting their 100 keep people in Europe survivable and and it was you know that Broncos
against the Jaguars I can a 27-point line and let’s say that like 99% of the
people at the Broncos you knew that somehow you noon all that we’re taking
the Broncos and you can only take the Jaguars or the brothers are your only
two choices which team should you take well think
about it if you take the Broncos you have
whatever else has he just have a 100% chance to win like you did before the
week started you either lose or win if you think the Jaguars what are the
Jaguars out to be the Broncos it’s like two or three percent night but
it’s better than one it’s better than 1 percent so you can actually take it down right
now if you play that way you will not last very long therefore but if your goal to win the pool you
play that way now I’m so it’s a very extreme example but these examples are similar you can
do the math if they’re 100 people are poor and 68 take the Titans lose there are 32 people right so what say
you are all in you know how people ten dollars a pop thousand dollars a thousand about my 32
it’s like thirty dollars you’re ten dollar entry now just tripled to 30 bucks equity you have in your pool
tripled because you have what it takes and a lot
there was if you take the Titans and they win there’s no way you can don’t have that
kinda equities you need to look at not only the chance of the team advancing but also the equity that you end up with
it just like poker where you know it’s it’s not just how
can I make a straight to the swatches how big is the pot you know relative to
my bets pot when you combine those two factors you
actually have a better chance to win your survivor pool because every time that you’ve ever done
well all these elaborate on what I bet a lot yes feels that way is when like for some reason you can’t
have that team left to get upset and have to pull drop you like to thank God
no the left I will drop to pay you can actually do that intentionally
II this was exactly our conversation except it was shorter eyebrows talk I got it
was good and so I’m not surprised by that number at
all the Titans play the Jaguars at all Heather says
there’s no way that tides could lose that game but I think
it’s that’s crazy if the Titans it’s not another it’s not the Packers
with Aaron Rodgers at home against the Jaguars it’s not the Broncos who just it seemed
inconceivable that they would be on the way to lose that game look it’s Jake Locker n course you could
lose that game I don’t they’ve been there there because
there is a point on which is too cute where becomes too cute to not take no I
don’t think this is the I don’t think this is Q I and I can take
the Colts there at eleven twenty percent picked them 11 17 percent on the giant I’m almost certain to take judge the
guys are up Adam you look at you can go to the moneyline’s you go to
Vegas page right here’s the person so I actually write the column and row are by
the way you have to look it up mean you look at
last week’s am reading this week’s alright tonight but obviously put the stable in so you
know who’s taking what and I put in next to all the teams their
Vegas moneyline’s directly translate Vegas moneyline’s
into a percentage to win might have ever T-minus you know 500 you know plus more under
the take the middle 450 one in four for you know it to
quantify fifty do the math and you figure out the percent and basically you know you can say okay the Titans
actually have a person to win here I mean that there’s an actual number
that makes but I’m if you think they can’t lose you should be buzzing with survivor go
to Vegas I you’ll be fine it doesn’t matter but but
obviously the cameras and there’s a real market for whether they had it wasn’t Raju quit their day there’s nobody lied
listed with some places because the Jaguars line is that this is at 11 half right now but you can
still figure it out like nine and a half for is plus 340 so they’re probably in
the you know there probably around plus 440
if that were if you find a place that’s good offer
okay suitability eighty-two percent chance so you would wait he would fade
Tennessee in hopes that they lose and then who is your next best option
this week that really well the big line to the Giants yeah
idea and the Colts at night half over the Rams II took call to say goodnight one so you have time to call second and
I’ll take what you need an 11 percent whether someone’s 11 percent acre 3
percent doesn’t matter it’s like negligible but it is a big team like Titans you
always avoid unless you know it it’s so ridiculously favor
but it’s not only a little bit on the Giants or the right or the calls out a guy I
probably just go in and order Colts Giants somebody else and then the Titans
it depended depending where you at some point you
take the Titans over like a 59 percent team you know but anything at seven percent
above I probably take both sides and and there’s a good chance that the
that if that happened but I don’t think the Jaguars are going on
sixty I think that won a game at some point you’re going to be I don’t
know somebody like the tides I I mean I get look I don’t think it’s
gonna I don’t think they’re going to be the Titans but I i’m not going to be slack jawed
the letter Tampa going into seattle and I’d better
on Twitter has turned to Titans can’t possibly with
the Jaguars TEP at Seattle on the ropes I mean in
Seattle Seattle that’s just not crazy that way crazier
than this that within ninety five percent gain that would been one the
biggest upsets little history II was a trying to figure
out was a Chris Carter I don’t remember who I was seeing did
great dismissal that game knows Mike wilma I I think it
was and he was like look we’ve all seen this
in sports it’s an when a team coming into a place for the
for the Seahawks were focused on much bigger
things he was like don’t even think that happens all the
time you could have foreseen that dumb and elect gals gonna be so extreme it
was a little farther than people thought that it had to go to overtime is a I’ve seen as does that sport it
this affects how you feel about the art you’re crazy this is what they do they
play back to back bad teams they took a deep breath in the Rams and
and and Kellen Clemens and the box and and they let down and
now they’re actually probably find a mate fact be better for it that they
sorta got checked out defense against the Rams and Masha come back in the second half
against the Buccaneers but that said it could happen and the
Jaguars walking alone 16 you talk about some the
play for Jaguars they definitely have some a
playful I and they want to accomplish that I wanna
be laughing stock so I’m I I’m done with the tight not want to
bring the fact that way geyser for taking Andy not taking the
job ajaj like it I would but but just tell people
that if you were just taking the Giants or Tennessee to win and that was it was
no part there’s no you don’t have a Tennessee about any I up ok

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